Stop the mistakes - play the odds from a process

When you repeat a mistake, it is not a mistake: it is a decision. - Paulo Coelho So what is an investment mistake? If the odds are 60/40 in ...

News, trading, and decision-making - Type I and Type II errors

Investment decision-making is a combination of assessment of information and action. Analysis and trading. If you are right, there is profit...

Psychometric tests and due diligence

The due diligence of hedge money is typically first rate, however the due diligence on supervisor talent is nonetheless primarily concentrat...

Evidence and conviction - more not always better

More is always better especially if it comes to data. Unfortunately, that may not the case.  A recent paper called "Too good to be true...

Simple Rules - Arguing for less complexity in money management

Remember the KISS method for modeling and decision-making? Keep It Simple, Stupid! The quick and easy read, Simple Rules - How to Thrive in ...

Confident about overconfidence - Too much confidence hurts

What is becoming clear from behavior research is that investors are overconfidence in their abilities. Overconfidence comes in two forms - o...

Dump that positive thinking - It hurts you

Most have been brought up on learning to be upbeat and positive. Think about positive thoughts and fantasize about success.  Monty Python ha...